Is the war in Ukraine a proxy conflict or something more complex?
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow claimed the West was waging a proxy war. While the term is frequently used in geopolitics, scholars argue the label might actually mask a much more direct and devastating struggle for sovereignty.
A proxy war occurs when third-party powers support combatants to advance their own strategic interests without engaging in direct, large-scale military confrontation. Historically, this has been a way for major powers to avoid the risk of global annihilation, particularly during the Cold War when the US and Soviet Union used conflicts like the Vietnam War and the Angolan civil war to compete for influence. These arrangements often involve 'subcontracting' force to avoid domestic opposition, geographical constraints, or the risk of escalation into a major war.
The definition itself is a subject of intense academic debate. There is no consensus on whether a proxy must be a non-state group or if a sovereign state can act as a proxy. Some scholars, like Rondeaux and David Sterman, define it as the sponsorship of forces outside the constitutional order of states engaged in conflict. Others debate the threshold of support: does it require covert paramilitary involvement, or does purely financial and logistical aid suffice?
In the context of Ukraine, the 'proxy war' label is contested. While Russia's involvement in the Donbas between 201 and 2022—including the support of the DNR and LNR—aligns with proxy warfare patterns, the full-scale invasion in 2022 is viewed by some as an inter-state war. Critics argue that labeling Ukraine a proxy denies the nation its own agency and right to self-defence. Furthermore, while Western allies provided training and low-level military aid, the scale of involvement prior to February 2022 was minimal compared to the direct Russian military operations seen in the annexation of Crimea.
The risks of such warfare are significant. Sponsors face the danger of escalation or 'exposure,' while proxies may face abandonment or internal faction-fighting. A notable failure occurred when the destruction of Flight MH-17 by a missile launcher loaned to separatists exposed Russian meddling to the world.
Source: Is the war in Ukraine a proxy conflict? | Feature from King's College London
