The next agricultural revolution may not involve eating less meat
In short: For 12,000 years, we have grown crops to feed animals so we can eat them. But as global meat production hits new records annually, a new era of food innovation is emerging to transform how we produce humanity's favorite food.
Since 1961, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has tracked a steady rise in meat consumption, with global production hitting a new record every single year. Changing eating habits are fueling this expansion; a 6% rise in the worldwide proportion of calories derived from fish and livestock is anticipated by 2034. In lower-middle-income economies, this rise is expected to be even more dramatic, with a projected 24% increase that could push daily intake of animal products to 364 kcal. This shift is driven by a global population expected to reach 8.2 billion by 2025, with an additional 800 million people arriving over the following decade.
The current system is remarkably inefficient. For example, producing chicken meat requires nine calories of input to yield just one calorie of output. Even the most efficient animals, like chickens, involve an 800 percent food waste margin when considering the land, water, and pesticides required. Beyond the biological inefficiency, the logistics of shipping feed, operating mills, and transporting animals to slaughterhouses add significant layers of energy use and pollution. This inefficiency is compounded by the heavy use of herbicides and pesticides required for feed crops.
The proposed solution is not a mandate on personal choice, but a shift in production technology. Food innovator Bruce Friedrich argues that the revolution lies in plant-based and cell-based products that match the taste and price of conventional meat. While agricultural production is projected to grow by 14% by 2034, achieving sustainability may require a 15% increase in productivity alongside the adoption of emissions-reduction technologies to help eliminate undernourishment and reduce agricultural emissions by 7%. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 notes that while productivity gains are expected to drive much of this output, expansion of cropland and herds could still cause a 6% rise in direct greenhouse gas emissions by 2034.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Bruce Friedrich: The next global agricultural revolution
- Also: Feeding a growing, changing, warming world: The next decade of agriculture
- Also: New book ‘Meat’ explores how the next food revolution could transform meat consumption
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