Why the 2004 Texas election remains a historic high-water mark for Republican presidential candidates
In short: In 2004, George W. Bush secured a decisive victory in Texas, marking a peak for Republican performance that has not been matched since. While the state was considered a safe red stronghold, the election revealed shifting demographics and urban trends that would eventually reshape the political landscape of the region.
The 2004 presidential election in Texas, held on November 2, saw incumbent Republican George W. Bush defeat Democrat John Kerry by a margin of 22.87%. This result stands as a significant milestone in modern Texas politics, representing the last time a Republican candidate surpassed 60% of the state's total vote. Bush's performance was bolstered by his historic appeal to Hispanic and Latino voters, where he drew nearly even with Kerry, capturing 49% of that demographic. This level of support among Texas Hispanics was not surpassed until 2024, when Donald Trump won a majority of the group.
Despite the comfortable statewide margin, the election highlighted emerging vulnerabilities for the Republican Party in urban and suburban areas. While Bush carried 236 of the state's 254 counties, Kerry made notable inroads in major population centers, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and the Houston area. Travis County, home to Austin, flipped to the Democratic column, driven by strong liberal sentiment and opposition to the Iraq War. This shift was a departure from 2000, when Ralph Nader's 11% share of the vote in Travis County had helped Bush secure a plurality there.
The 2004 election also set records for voter participation, with Harris County becoming the first in Texas to cast over one million ballots. Although Bush won 25 of the state's 32 congressional districts, the long-term trends were already beginning to diverge. By 2008, many urban counties that Bush carried began shifting toward Democratic candidate Barack Obama. Today, the 2004 results serve as a benchmark for Republican dominance in the state, as subsequent elections have seen the loss of key urban strongholds like Bexar, Dallas, and Harris counties to Democratic candidates, reflecting the state's evolving political character.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: 2004 United States presidential election in Texas
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