Why Arizona's 2008 Presidential Vote Was Closer Than Expected for John McCain

Countries & Cities · Published 15 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: In 2008, Arizona native John McCain secured his home state's ten electoral votes, yet the contest proved tighter than his previous Senate landslides. While the Republican nominee maintained a comfortable lead, shifting demographics and polling data suggested a changing political landscape in a state long considered a reliable GOP stronghold.

On November 4, 2008, Arizona voters participated in the presidential election by selecting ten electors for the Electoral College. John McCain, a Republican senator representing Arizona since 1987, ultimately carried the state with an 8.48% lead over Barack Obama. Despite this victory, the margin was smaller than the 10.5% lead George W. Bush achieved in the state four years earlier. McCain won 11 of the state's 15 counties, though the race was notably closer than his 2004 Senate reelection, where he captured 77% of the vote.

The state's political geography is heavily influenced by Maricopa and Pima counties, which together account for nearly 75% of the total vote. Maricopa County, a Republican bastion since 1948, provided McCain with an 11-point advantage, effectively neutralizing Obama's narrow success in Tucson. While McCain dominated in rural areas, the growing influence of the Hispanic voting bloc sparked speculation that the race might have been significantly tighter had a different candidate been on the Republican ticket. Both McCain and Bush had previously maintained moderate stances on illegal immigration, which may have influenced these results.

Financial and campaign dynamics also played a role in the state's electoral narrative. McCain raised over $7.4 million, compared to approximately $5.5 million for Obama. Interestingly, the Democratic ticket did not visit Arizona during the campaign, while McCain made five appearances. Despite the presidential outcome, the election cycle saw nuanced shifts in local representation. While Republicans expanded their control in the state legislature, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick secured an open seat in the 1st congressional district, marking the first time in 60 years that Democrats held a majority of the state's House seats. By December 15, 2008, the state's ten electors formally cast their votes for McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin.

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