Iowa's 2026 Senate race marks a rare political shift in an increasingly red state

Cultures · Published 10 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: As incumbent Senator Joni Ernst steps down, Iowa faces its first open Senate election held concurrently with an open gubernatorial race since 1968. With the state trending reliably Republican, the contest between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek tests whether Democrats can break a losing streak dating back to 2008.

The 2026 election cycle in Iowa arrives during a period of significant political consolidation for the Republican Party. Since the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, when the state supported Barack Obama, Iowa has shifted toward a moderately to strongly red status. This trend is reflected in the current state government, where Republicans hold majorities in both legislative chambers, control the entire congressional delegation, and occupy every statewide executive office except for the state auditor.

The Republican nominee, congresswoman Ashley Hinson, secured her party's nomination on June 2, 2026, with 73.9% of the vote, bolstered by an endorsement from Donald Trump. Her Democratic opponent, state representative Josh Turek, won his primary with 62.6% of the vote. The seat became open after incumbent Senator Joni Ernst, first elected during the 2014 red wave, announced in September 2025 that she would not seek a third term. Her decision followed a controversial May 2025 town hall appearance where she dismissed concerns over Medicaid-related deaths with the comment, "Well, we all are going to die."

This election is historically notable for its timing. It is the first time since 1968 that Iowa has held an open Senate election alongside an open gubernatorial contest. While Republicans have dominated recent federal results—with Donald Trump winning the state by 8 percentage points in 2020 and increasing that margin to 13 points in 2024—the upcoming November 3, 2026, vote will determine if the Democratic Party can finally end its Senate drought. Beyond the major party nominees, the ballot will also feature a Libertarian candidate, following the successful submission of nearly 10,000 signatures by the Laehn campaign.

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