How do we measure a president's success in creating jobs?
In short: Politicians often claim they are "creating jobs," but the actual numbers depend heavily on how you count them. From the specific month you start your tally to the method of surveying businesses, the math behind a president's economic legacy is more complex than a single headline suggests.
Economists typically rely on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and its Establishment Survey to track nonfarm payroll employment. This survey estimates jobs, hours, and earnings by sampling approximately 145,000 businesses and government agencies. However, these figures are estimates of wage and salary jobs, not a total count of employed persons; for instance, an individual holding two jobs is counted twice.
The way a "job creation" number is calculated can change the outcome. For example, economists debate whether to use January—the month of inauguration—as the base month or February. This is because survey data is typically collected around the 12th of the month, meaning January's numbers are often recorded before a new president even takes office. Using February as a starting point provides a different baseline for comparison.
Data is also subject to significant revisions. Monthly counts are often adjusted within 90 days to account for seasonal variations, such as holidays or weather, and to reflect new data from unemployment insurance filings. These revisions can sometimes change the reported figures by 20% or more. Despite these technical metrics, public perception often diverges from official data; a Harris Poll found that 68% of Americans were unhappy with the economy even as unemployment rates reached near 50-year lows.
When looking at historical trends from Truman onward, the partisan divide in job growth is notable. Democratic presidents saw total job creation occur 2.4 times faster than Republican presidents, adding 70.5 million jobs over 429 months compared to 29.1 million jobs for Republicans over 475 months.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms
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