Can a Japanese populist party survive its own dramatic rise and sudden fall?

Can a Japanese populist party survive its own dramatic rise and sudden fall?
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In short: Founded by a former actor, Reiwa Shinsengumi surged from obscurity to national relevance with a radical, anti-neoliberal platform. Yet, after years of electoral gains and internal controversy, the party faces a precarious future, marked by leadership resignations, health crises, and a significant decline in its political influence.

Established in April 2019 by Taro Yamamoto, Reiwa Shinsengumi emerged as a progressive, left-wing populist force in Japanese politics. Yamamoto, a former actor, launched the party with the goal of challenging the status quo, advocating for policies such as abolishing the consumption tax, raising the minimum wage to ¥1,500 per hour, and implementing a Green New Deal. The party quickly gained traction, securing two seats in the House of Councillors just months after its formation, largely by championing the inclusion of candidates with disabilities.

The party's trajectory was marked by both electoral success and strategic volatility. By the 2024 general election, it had tripled its seat count in the House of Representatives. However, this growth was accompanied by significant friction. The party faced backlash over foreign endorsements and internal scandals, including a high-speed driving incident involving Yamamoto that resulted in a ¥90,000 fine and a license suspension. These events, coupled with Yamamoto’s diagnosis of multiple myeloma in 2026, forced a major leadership transition.

Scholarly debate persists regarding the party's ideological classification. While some observers describe it as radical left-wing or liberal-populist, others, such as Axel Klein, argue it fails to meet the standard criteria for populism. Regardless of the label, the party’s reliance on anti-establishment rhetoric and street-level activism has made it a distinct, if controversial, player. Following a disastrous 2026 election result where its seat count plummeted, the party entered a period of rebranding, electing Joji Yamamoto as leader and signaling an intent to shed its previous identity as a relic of the past.

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