Can a single missile launch trigger the end of the world in 2025?

Entertainment · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Kathryn Bigelow’s political thriller A House of Dynamite explores the terrifying minutes following an unidentified ICBM launch toward Chicago. As U.S. leadership debates retaliation, the film forces a confrontation with the fragility of global stability and the high-stakes pressure of nuclear command authority in a modern, interconnected world.

Directed by Kathryn Bigelow and written by Noah Oppenheim, A House of Dynamite depicts a high-tension scenario where an unknown adversary fires a single intercontinental ballistic missile at Chicago. The narrative follows U.S. officials, including the president and his advisors, as they navigate the minutes before impact. The film explores the agonizing choice between immediate retaliation, as recommended by STRATCOM commander Gen. Anthony Brady, and the restraint urged by Deputy National Security Advisor Jake Baerington, who fears a catastrophic miscalculation.

The film’s technical accuracy regarding telecommunications during a crisis has received praise, yet its central premise faces skepticism from experts. Critics argue that a real-world nuclear strike would likely involve a larger salvo rather than a lone missile, and that nuclear conflict is more probable as an escalation of conventional warfare rather than an isolated, sudden event. Furthermore, experts note that leadership would likely rely on second-strike capabilities rather than feeling compelled to respond before the initial impact.

A significant point of contention involves the film’s depiction of the U.S. Ground-Based Interceptor system. While the Missile Defense Agency maintains a 100% success rate, the film claims a 61% rate. Screenwriter Oppenheim defended this by citing an overall success rate of 57% across 20 tests since 1999. MIT’s Ted Postol, a vocal critic of the program, supported the film’s skepticism, even suggesting the entire defense initiative is fraudulent. This debate highlights the film's broader goal: to dramatize the precariousness of living in what the president describes as a house of dynamite.

Released in 2025, the film features an ensemble cast including Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson. It premiered at the 82nd Venice International Film Festival and arrived on Netflix in October. With a 75% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, critics have lauded its nerve-wracking plausibility, comparing its sobering intensity to the existential dread found in classic disaster and political dramas.

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