Iraq is caught in a crossfire it never asked to join
In short: Since February 2026, Iraq has become a primary theater for a regional war that threatens to shatter its hard-won stability. Caught between American-Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation, the nation faces a dual threat: external bombardment and internal fractures that could ignite a devastating civil conflict.
The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel initiated a military operation against Iran. The opening salvo resulted in the deaths of senior Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This triggered a massive retaliatory campaign involving hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones across the Middle East. Iraq, geographically situated in the heart of this zone, has become a primary target for both sides, straining its ability to maintain neutrality.
The situation is complicated by Iraq's internal demographics and political fragility. The country is currently in a state of transition, with a weakened interim government and one-third of cabinet posts vacant. While the Iraqi government has attempted to limit the involvement of pro-Iranian armed factions, the presence of these groups—alongside Kurdish-Iranian opposition groups—creates volatile fault lines. The risk of civil conflict is high, as different factions may be pushed toward violence by the escalating external pressure.
The human and economic costs are already mounting. Oil shipments and power supplies have been hindered by the conflict, risking a move toward public revolt by the pressured citizenry. In the Kurdistan Region, strikes have increasingly moved from military targets to civilian infrastructure, including hotels and residential areas. To mitigate this, religious leaders like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani are employing political realism, using restrained statements to prioritize national stability and delegitimize those seeking to use religion as a pretext for retaliatory violence.
Furthermore, the conflict poses a systemic threat to public health. Wars of this scale typically cause severe damage to health infrastructure, leading to workforce shortages, psychological stress on medical staff, and reduced patient access to care. Experts suggest that building resilience in such environments requires decentralizing essential services and establishing international networks to ensure that the most vulnerable populations are not left without life-saving support during the ongoing hostilities.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Iraq must not be a staging ground for war with Iran | Brookings
- Also: Iraq in the 2026 Iran war
- Also: 2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict | Britannica
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