Why a 90% accurate detector might still be wrong most of the time
In short: If a rare mineral appears in only 1% of rocks, how much can you trust a detector that is 90% accurate? This video explores the counterintuitive nature of the false positive paradox.
The video uses a thought experiment involving 'unobtainium' to illustrate why high accuracy rates can be misleading when searching for rare items. In this scenario, the mineral exists in only 1% of rocks, creating a mathematical tension with a detector that is 90% accurate. This paradox demonstrates how the frequency of a target significantly impacts the reliability of positive test results.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: Can you solve the false positive riddle? - Alex Gendler
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