Can rational choice theory explain human behavior, or is it just a myth?

Ideas & Philosophy · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Jon Elster, a giant of social science, spent decades applying rational choice theory to everything from Marxism to human emotions. Yet, after years of rigorous analysis, he arrived at a surprising conclusion: the mathematical models we use to predict human decisions often fail to capture how people actually behave.

Born in 1940, Jon Elster became a leading figure in the philosophy of social science by advocating for methodological individualism. He argued that societal phenomena must be explained through the actions of individuals rather than abstract entities. Early in his career, he sought to ground Marxism in game theory, moving away from functionalist explanations that assumed institutions existed simply because they served a societal purpose. His work was defined by a commitment to analytical rigor, applying rational choice theory to complex topics like self-restraint, bias, and political psychology.

Elster’s intellectual journey is marked by a profound shift. While he initially championed rational choice as a powerful tool for understanding both what we should do and who we should be, he eventually grew disillusioned. In his 2007 book, Explaining Social Behavior, he openly recanted his earlier faith in the theory. He questioned whether real people actually perform the complex calculations found in academic journals, noting that there is no reliable mechanism that mimics perfect rationality in the real world.

Today, Elster emphasizes the prevalence of irrationality, including habit, self-deception, and emotional impulsiveness. He points to the persistent disagreement among scholars as evidence that social science lacks the precision of the hard sciences. By moving past the rigid constraints of rational choice, Elster has turned his attention to the nuances of human behavior, exploring topics like transitional justice and the unraveling of political regimes. His career serves as a testament to the importance of intellectual honesty, demonstrating how a scholar can refine—or even abandon—their most foundational theories when faced with the messy reality of human experience.

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