Can a historian predict the future by looking at the past?

Ideas & Philosophy · Published 30 September 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Margaret MacMillan, a preeminent historian of international relations, argues that history is a tool for understanding our volatile present. By examining the origins of global conflicts, from the First World War to modern globalization, she reveals how the past constantly shapes the diplomatic challenges and political tensions of today.

Born in 1943, Margaret MacMillan is a Canadian historian whose lineage includes David Lloyd George, the British Prime Minister who helped shape the post-1919 global order. This familial connection to history is perhaps fitting, as her academic career has been defined by a rigorous examination of international relations. After earning her DPhil from St Antony's College, Oxford, she built a career spanning both Canada and the United Kingdom, serving as Provost of Trinity College, Toronto, and later as Warden of St Antony's College.

MacMillan gained international acclaim for her work on the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, published as 'Peacemakers' or 'Paris 1919'. The book, which won the prestigious Samuel Johnson Prize, dissects the complex attempts to end the First World War. Her research consistently focuses on the British Empire and the 20th century, often drawing parallels between historical flashpoints and contemporary crises. For instance, in 2014, she noted striking similarities between the geopolitical climate of the centenary of Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination and the modern tensions surrounding the annexation of Crimea and territorial disputes in the Senkaku Islands.

Beyond her academic research, MacMillan is a prominent public intellectual who frequently engages with the political implications of history. In her 2018 Reith Lectures, 'The Mark of Cain', she explored the enduring nature of war. She has also warned that globalization can paradoxically fuel localism and nativism, urging leaders to build stable international orders. Whether discussing the Arab Spring or the rise of radical ideologies, MacMillan argues that history is not merely a record of the past but a vital, if often abused, framework for navigating the dangers of our own time.

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