Why holding office makes winning the next election much easier
In short: In many elections, the person already in power is incredibly difficult to unseat. While political waves often topple entire parties, the incumbency advantage remains a persistent force, driven by everything from massive fundraising leads to the subtle power of personal reputation.
Holding an existing position provides an incumbency advantage, which refers to the extra votes a person gains by being the current officeholder. In the U.S. House of Representatives, this phenomenon has been documented since the 1960s. It functions through several distinct mechanisms: resource advantages like higher campaign revenues and free mailings, higher name recognition, and the ability to strategically influence district boundaries during redistricting.
Beyond structural advantages, there is the 'personal vote'—the reputation and relationship an official cultivates with their constituents. In non-partisan municipal elections, such as those in Calgary, Alberta, this personal connection is powerful. Research using a 2017 ward boundary revision shows that without this personal vote, the probability of voting for an incumbent drops by about ten percentage points. This personal vote is significant enough to influence one in four incumbent races.
The impact of this advantage varies by context. In non-partisan city contests, re-election rates for incumbents can regularly exceed 90%. Conversely, in the 2024 U.S. House elections, while global trends suggested a wave of defeats for incumbents, the advantage remained stable, with only 15 of 381 incumbent legislators failing to be re-elected. While some argue this stability ensures experienced policymaking, others warn it reduces electoral competitiveness and responsiveness to voters.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: The presidential incumbency advantage | US government and civics | Khan Academy
- Also: Closest to the People? Incumbency Advantage and the Personal Vote in Non-Partisan Elections - PMC
- Also: In a Year of Change, Incumbents Held Ground in the U.S. House | Journal of Public and International Affairs
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