Predicting floods and droughts requires overcoming complex modeling and data challenges
In short: A review of hydrological research found that predicting floods, droughts, and the rapid transitions between them is essential for minimizing societal and economic damage. Researchers identified that current forecasting methods often treat these two extremes as independent events, despite their shared complexities and related scientific challenges.
The review categorizes the primary hurdles in predicting water extremes into four areas: data availability, process understanding, modeling techniques, and human-water interactions.
The authors suggest that moving toward joint frameworks and non-stationary models could improve our ability to manage these extreme weather events.
Why it matters: Improving how we predict water extremes is essential for minimizing the economic and social damage caused by floods and droughts.
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Sources
- Source: Research: Brunner et al. (2021). Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water. · other-oa
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