A fragile peace shatters as Ethiopia descends into large-scale warfare
In short: In September 2026, the Ethiopian People's Forces Coalition for Survival launched a massive offensive against the federal government. This escalation marks the most significant fighting since the 2020–2022 Tigray war, threatening to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and redraw regional borders.
The conflict erupted on 23 September 2026, when a seven-member alliance known as the EPFAS—including the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army—launched coordinated strikes across Tigray, Afar, and Amhara. The coalition aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to establish a transitional administration. While the TPLF characterizes the campaign as a 'defensive war,' the scale of the mobilization has drawn international concern, with the US and Australia issuing travel warnings for the affected regions.
The violence has been marked by intense aerial warfare and significant civilian casualties. In late August 2025, a drone strike on a civilian compound in Mekelle wounded 13 people, an incident Human Rights Watch described as 'unlawfully indiscriminate.' By late September, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) conducted over 21 airstrikes, including a strike in Alamata that left at least 14 civilians dead and 22 injured. The fighting has also disrupted vital infrastructure, with TPLF orders leading to the shutdown of Safaricom and Ethio Telecom networks in Tigray.
The geopolitical implications are profound. Diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea have completely severed following the closure of the Ethiopian embassy in Asmara and the expulsion of 10 diplomats. While the Afar governor accused Eritrean forces of infiltrating the region to disrupt the Djibouti-Ethiopia road, independent conflict data has not yet confirmed a large-scale Eritrean offensive. Meanwhile, the ENDF’s decision to withdraw 3,000 soldiers from Somalia to bolster domestic forces has raised fears that Al-Shabaab may exploit the resulting security vacuum.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: 2026 Ethiopian offensive
- Also: Wikidata — 2026 Ethiopian offensive · CC0
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