Canada is facing a historic fertility crisis despite its rapidly growing total population

Countries & Cities · Published 29 September 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Canada’s population is surging, recently surpassing 41 million, yet the country is simultaneously grappling with its lowest fertility rate ever recorded. While immigration remains the primary engine of national growth, the internal birth rate has fallen to levels that now rank among the lowest in the world.

The demographic landscape of Canada is defined by a sharp contrast between high-volume immigration and declining domestic birth rates. While the 2021 census enumerated 36,991,981 people, estimates suggest the population reached 41.5 million by 2025. This growth is heavily reliant on external arrivals; in 2024–2025 alone, over 435,000 immigrants were admitted, and temporary residents now account for about 2.5 million people. These newcomers are essential to sustaining the country's population, as the domestic birth rate has failed to reach replacement levels since 1971.

The situation regarding births has become increasingly acute. By 2024, Canada’s total fertility rate dropped to approximately 1.25, marking the lowest figure in the nation's history. This trend has persisted for three consecutive years, placing Canada firmly in the category of 'ultra-low fertility' nations. The decline is significant; from 2021 to 2022, the fertility rate fell by 7.4 percent, the largest single-year decrease in half a century. Furthermore, the average age of mothers at first birth reached 31.3 years in 2020, reflecting a broader trend of late-childbearing.

These demographic shifts are reshaping the country's social fabric. In 2024, over 42 percent of newborns had a mother born outside of Canada. Meanwhile, self-reported ethnic identity is becoming increasingly diverse, with over 450 origins identified in the 2021 census. While 'Canadian' remains the most common self-reported origin, the population is increasingly composed of visible minorities, with South Asian, Chinese, and Black communities representing the largest groups. As the population ages and fertility remains low, the reliance on immigration to maintain growth and cultural diversity remains a defining feature of the Canadian experience.

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