Is the world actually becoming a more peaceful place?
For decades, historians have debated whether global violence is on the decline. This video explores the data behind the debate, examining whether we have moved away from an era of unprecedented bloodshed toward a more stable era of international cooperation.
A new statistical analysis by mathematicians at the University of May York uses a 'change point' algorithm to track global battle deaths since the Napoleonic wars. The study identifies a period of extreme violence between 1910 and 1950, but reveals an abrupt shift toward greater peace in the early 1990s. This recent 30-year decline may be linked to increased international cooperation and the peacekeeping efforts of organizations like the UN.
However, the data remains complex. Researchers note that battle death statistics are often imperfect, as they may struggle to account for indirect war-related deaths, such as famine or disease. Furthermore, existing datasets may be Eurocentric, potentially overlooking conflicts in the developing world. Despite these limitations, the study provides a sophisticated empirical basis for understanding long-term historical shifts in human conflict.
Source: Is The World Getting More Violent?
