The 'God of Chaos' could be nudged into a collision course

Space · Published 22 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Asteroid Apophis was once considered our greatest near-Earth threat, but new research suggests a hidden variable: the possibility of a secondary impact. While the odds remain incredibly slim, a tiny space rock hitting Apophis could theoretically hijack its trajectory, turning a safe flyby into a planetary hazard.

Discovered in 2004, asteroid 99942 Apophis—named after the Egyptian god of chaos—initially sparked global alarm. Because of its trajectory and dimensions, it received a Level 4 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which represents the peak rating ever awarded to any near-Earth object. Early calculations suggested a 2.7% chance of impact during its close approach on April 13, 2029. However, after continuous tracking and a significant flyby in March 2021, NASA scientists were able to narrow its orbit so precisely that it was removed from all risk lists, with no threat predicted for at least 100 years.

The new concern comes from astrophysicist Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario. He explored a 'what if' scenario: what happens if Apophis is struck by another, much smaller asteroid? Research by him indicates that a body measuring only 0.6 meters wide might move Apophis toward an Earth collision path. More importantly, a piece merely 3.4 meters wide could hit with sufficient power to shove it into a perilous trajectory before the 2029 flyby.

The math behind these risks is dauntingly low but scientifically significant. Wiegert estimates the probability of such a specific collision occurring at roughly 1 in 2 billion. If that hit happens, the subsequent chance of Apophis actually impacting Earth is about 1 in 1 million. These small rocks are similar to those that occasionally enter our atmosphere as 'shooting stars.' Because Apophis will be largely unobservable from 2021 to 2027 due to its position in the daytime sky, such an impact could occur without immediate human detection.

Despite these new calculations, the consensus remains calm. Professor Richard Binzel of MIT emphasizes that Apophis will safely pass Earth in 2029—a 'once-in-a-millennium' event where it will be visible to the naked eye as a faint star. For scientists, this flyby serves as a rare natural experiment to observe how Earth's gravity reshapes a massive body roughly 340 meters across.

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