Why Tokugawa Ieyasu risked total annihilation in a battle he was destined to lose
On January 25, 1573, Tokugawa Ieyasu faced Takeda Shingen on the plain of Mikatagahara. Despite being outnumbered three-to-one and ignoring warnings from his own generals, Ieyasu chose to fight. The resulting defeat was his most decisive, leaving him fleeing for his life with only five men remaining by his side.
The Battle of Mikatagahara was a pivotal clash of the Sengoku period. Takeda Shingen, marching toward Kyoto to challenge Oda Nobunaga, sought to bypass Tokugawa Ieyasu’s territory. However, Ieyasu, based at Hamamatsu Castle with 11,000 men—including 3,000 Oda reinforcements—refused to let the Takeda pass unhindered. Historian Kawai Atsushi suggests this was not a reckless gamble but a political necessity; failing to confront the aggressive Takeda would have cost Ieyasu the respect and loyalty of his proud Mikawa samurai clans.
Shingen, commanding 30,000 men, utilized the gyorin fish-scale formation to lure Ieyasu into an attack. While Ieyasu hoped his arquebusiers would neutralize the Takeda cavalry, the plan failed when Takeda horsemen overran his right flank. The battle quickly turned into a rout. Oda reinforcements fled, and Ieyasu’s army was effectively annihilated. Ieyasu himself only escaped death after his retainer Natsume Yoshinobu led a suicide charge to buy him time, allowing the daimyo to retreat to Hamamatsu.
The aftermath saw a masterclass in psychological warfare. Upon returning to his castle with only five survivors, Ieyasu ordered the gates left open and braziers lit. Sakai Tadatsugu beat a war drum, creating the illusion of a trap. The Takeda, wary of a ruse, halted their advance. A subsequent night skirmish by a small band of Tokugawa soldiers further rattled the Takeda, prompting Shingen to withdraw. Though the battle was a catastrophic military failure for Ieyasu, the Takeda momentum stalled; Shingen died just months later, leaving Ieyasu to survive and eventually shape the future of Japan.
Source: Battle of Mikatagahara
