How the 2021 fall of Kabul unfolded faster than the world anticipated
When the Taliban captured Kabul on August 15, 2021, the collapse of the Afghan government stunned international observers. Despite intelligence projections suggesting the capital would hold for months, the state disintegrated in days. This rapid transition triggered the largest non-combatant evacuation in United States military history, leaving a complex legacy.
The fall of Kabul was the final act of a two-decade war, culminating in the total victory of the Taliban and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate. The collapse was preceded by a rapid insurgent offensive that began in May 2021. By mid-August, the Afghan National Army had effectively disintegrated, with only two operational units remaining in the capital. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country on August 15, later claiming he left to prevent a massive conflict that would have destroyed a city of five million people.
Analysts point to the February 2020 United States–Taliban deal as a critical factor in the government's demise. Signed in Doha without the involvement of the Afghan government, the agreement mandated a full withdrawal of NATO forces and restricted the ability of US aircraft to support Afghan units. This eroded the morale of the Afghan National Security Forces, who were subjected to Taliban propaganda claiming the US had already surrendered territory. As the offensive accelerated, US intelligence estimates for the state's longevity plummeted from months to just days.
The ensuing evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport became a desperate scramble. Between August 14 and 30, coalition partners airlifted over 123,000 people, including foreign staff and vulnerable Afghans. However, the mission was marred by tragedy, including a suicide bombing that killed over 180 people and a mistaken US drone strike that killed 10 civilians. When the final US troops departed on August 30, the Taliban had reclaimed control, leaving behind a population gripped by uncertainty and fear regarding the future of human rights and civil liberties.
Source: Fall of Kabul (2021)
