The Doha Accords: How a Peace Deal Helped Trigger the Collapse of Afghanistan

Wars & Conflicts · Published 15 October 2026 · Updated 25 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Signed in 2020, the U.S.–Taliban agreement aimed to end two decades of war through a phased withdrawal of foreign forces. Yet, the deal excluded the Afghan government, fueled insurgent momentum, and left local security forces feeling abandoned, ultimately paving the way for the Taliban to seize power in 2021.

The Doha Accords, signed on February 29, 2020, represented a major shift in U.S. strategy. Negotiated by Zalmay Khalilzad for the Trump administration, the deal promised a full withdrawal of NATO forces within 14 months, provided the Taliban met specific counter-terrorism commitments. Crucially, the Afghan government was not a party to these negotiations, a decision that critics argue undermined the state's legitimacy and left its leadership in the dark regarding secret annexes within the agreement.

The impact on the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) was immediate and devastating. As the U.S. reduced its air support and adhered to strict operational limitations—such as a prohibition on attacking Taliban groups positioned more than 500 meters away—the ANDSF lost its primary tactical advantage. This shift, combined with a lack of transparency, allowed the Taliban to spread disinformation. Many local security units, convinced that the U.S. had already ceded territory, chose to abandon their posts rather than continue fighting.

Violence surged in the months following the signing. Between March 1 and April 15, 2020, the Taliban launched over 4,500 attacks, a 70% increase compared to the same period in 2019. While U.S. troop levels dropped from 13,000 to 2,500 by January 2021, the promised intra-Afghan peace talks remained stalled by disputes over prisoner exchanges and the composition of the government's negotiating team. By the time the final U.S. evacuation concluded on August 30, 2021, the Taliban had already effectively dismantled the Afghan state, culminating in their takeover of Kabul just weeks earlier.

The legacy of the deal remains a subject of intense scrutiny. While the UN Security Council initially endorsed the agreement, the reality on the ground proved far more volatile than the diplomatic framework suggested. The withdrawal process continued despite the escalating conflict, leaving the Afghan government to navigate a collapsing security landscape with dwindling international support. This sequence of events remains a central case study in the complexities of exiting long-term military engagements.

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