China may struggle to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 without carbon capture technology
In short: Researchers using the STIRPAT model to predict provincial emission trajectories found that while most Chinese provinces can peak emissions before 2030, reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 remains difficult. The study suggests that achieving the national goal depends heavily on the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies.
The study analyzed provincial-level emission trajectories to assess the feasibility of China's climate commitments. The researchers found that without significant CCUS development, the timeline for carbon neutrality could slip past 2060. However, high levels of CCUS development could enable neutrality as early as 2054. A limitation of this modeling approach is that it relies on specific socio-economic scenarios and technological assumptions.
Why it matters: Technological advancement in carbon capture may be the deciding factor in meeting China's 2060 climate targets.
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Sources
- Source: Research: Sun et al. (2022). Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?. Advances in Climate Change Research. · cc-by-nc-nd
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