Varying fossil fuel reductions are required to meet different global warming targets
In short: Researchers analyzing climate mitigation scenarios found that meeting the 1.5 °C warming limit requires much steeper declines in fossil fuel use than the 2 °C target. In scenarios aiming for 1.5 °C, global coal, oil, and natural gas supplies would need to drop by an average of 95%, 62%, and 42% respectively by 2050.
The study used computational modeling to analyze various IPCC scenarios to determine how fossil fuel use must change to limit warming. It found that the role of natural gas varies significantly depending on the reliance on carbon capture and storage technologies.
The researchers noted that models may underestimate the difficulty of gas reduction by not fully accounting for regional storage limits or the complexities of technology adoption.
Why it matters: Climate targets must be accompanied by specific benchmarks for reducing fossil fuel production and use.
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