Was the 1889 Russian flu actually a coronavirus pandemic?

Gardening · Published 17 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: The 1889 Russian flu was the first pandemic of the industrial era, spreading across the globe via new rail and sea networks. While long attributed to influenza, recent genetic evidence suggests it may have been a coronavirus, potentially mirroring the mechanisms of modern respiratory outbreaks.

The 'Russian flu' raged from 1889 to 1894, striking with such intensity that it reached attack rates of 60% in urban populations. It was the first planetary event of its kind to be tracked with systematic statistics, moving rapidly across continents. By late 1889, it had reached the Russian Empire, hitting the capital with 20,000 cases in a single month. In cities like St. Petersburg and Berlin, the disease caused economic paralysis, closing factories, schools, and barracks while occupying one-third of hospital beds.

For decades, the causative agent was assumed to be Myxovirus influenzae. However, recent phylogenetic studies have sparked a debate. A genetic similarity has been observed by scientists regarding the human virus HCoV-OC43 and a bovine coronavirus (BCoV). This human virus emerged around 1890, coinciding with a massive epizootic of pneumonia among cattle across Europe. This suggests the Russian flu might have been a coronavirus pandemic, with HCoV-OC43 potentially being its attenuated remnant.

The pandemic's impact was complex. Global fatalities are projected at one million, even though the case-fatality rate remained quite low (0.10% to 0.28%). In Paris, the mortality rate was about 62 per 1,000 people, a 30% increase over the previous winter. French statistician Jacques Bertillon famously argued that 'excess deaths' were a better metric than direct flu deaths, as the epidemic likely triggered a surge in other associated diseases, a methodology now standard in modern epidemiology.

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