Why the 2015 UK General Election defied every expert prediction of a hung parliament

History · Published 30 September 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Pollsters and pundits were certain the 2015 election would mirror the 2010 stalemate, forcing another coalition government. Instead, the Conservative Party secured an unexpected majority, while the Scottish National Party surged to dominance in Scotland. It remains a masterclass in how quickly political landscapes can shift against conventional wisdom.

Held on 7 May 2015, the election was the first conducted under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. This legislation removed the prime minister's traditional prerogative to call an election at a tactically advantageous moment, mandating a five-year term instead. The dissolution of the 55th Parliament occurred on 30 March 2015, setting the stage for a contest that many observers believed would usher in a new era of multi-party instability.

The results confounded expectations. While polls suggested a second consecutive hung parliament, the Conservatives, led by David Cameron, won 330 of the 650 available seats, securing a slim overall majority. Conversely, the Labour Party, under Ed Miliband, struggled significantly, returning only 232 MPs—their lowest count since 1987. The Liberal Democrats, who had served as junior coalition partners since 2010, were decimated, losing 49 of their 57 seats as voters punished them for their role in the outgoing government.

The most dramatic transformation occurred in Scotland. The Scottish National Party, riding a wave of momentum following the 2014 independence referendum, captured 56 of Scotland's 59 seats. This performance effectively ended Labour's long-standing hegemony in the region and established the SNP as a major force in Westminster. Meanwhile, the UK Independence Party, despite securing 12.6 per cent of the national vote, failed to translate that support into parliamentary representation, winning only a single seat.

Ultimately, the 2015 election proved to be a return to traditional two-party dominance rather than the fragmented landscape many had anticipated. It was also the final general election before the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in 2016. The event marked a pivotal moment for several future leaders, including Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak, and Boris Johnson, all of whom secured seats in the House of Commons during this cycle.

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