The first time a Prime Minister won both seats and votes after a full term
In short: In the 2015 General Election, David Cameron achieved a feat of political longevity that had never occurred in modern British history. While his victory was hailed as a remarkable achievement, it left him presiding over one of the thinnest margins of power ever seen in the UK.
The 2015 election marked a significant shift in the British parliamentary landscape. It was the first time since 1935 that an incumbent coalition government defended its record, facing a multi-party field that included not just the three major parties, but also UKIP and nationalist groups. The atmosphere was defined by high uncertainty; Professor Vernon Bogdanor noted that even political scientists and bookmakers struggled to predict the outcome accurately.
Despite this volatility, David Cameron secured a historic double victory: he increased both his party's share of the popular vote (by approximately 0.9%) and its number of seats (gaining 25 net seats from 2010). This is a unique milestone in modern history, as no other Prime Minister had managed to expand their mandate on both fronts after serving a full term in office. For context, the nearest historical precedent was Lord Salisbury in 1900, who increased his vote share but actually lost nine seats.
However, this expansion of power came with a caveat of extreme fragility. The resulting government held a majority of just 12 (effectively 16, as four Sinn Fein Nationalists do not take their seats). This was the lowest majority since October 1974, when Labour held a mere three. To put the scale in perspective, the preceding coalition government of 2010-2015 had enjoyed a robust majority of 78.
This razor-thin margin creates a precarious stability. Bogdanor highlights that with only 16 seats, just nine rebellious backbenchers could theoretically undermine the government. He draws a parallel to John Major in 1992, who struggled to ratify the Maastricht Treaty with a majority of 21—a number Major famously remarked was composed of at least 13 'quite mad' individuals.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: The General Election of 2015 - Professor Vernon Bogdanor
- Also: The General Election, 2015
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