How a 99.8% Win Probability Collapsed in the Final Minutes of the Cotton Bowl
In short: The 2022 USC Trojans football season was a rollercoaster of high-octane offense and sudden heartbreak. Led by first-year head coach Lincoln Riley and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, the team dominated their schedule, only to see their national championship dreams vanish in a stunning late-game collapse against Tulane.
The 2022 campaign marked a significant transition for the University of Southern California football program. Under the guidance of Lincoln Riley, who was appointed head coach on November 28, 2021, the team underwent a massive roster overhaul. The Trojans saw 27 players depart via the transfer portal while simultaneously welcoming 23 new arrivals. This aggressive approach to roster management helped propel the team to an 11–3 overall record and an 8–1 standing within the Pac-12 Conference.
Despite their success, the season was defined by two pivotal losses that derailed their postseason ambitions. After securing a spot in the Pac-12 championship game, the Trojans fell to Utah, a defeat that effectively ended their hopes for a College Football Playoff berth and allowed Ohio State to claim the No. 4 seed. The season concluded with a bid to the Cotton Bowl Classic against Tulane, a game that remains one of the most improbable turnarounds in recent college football history.
For the vast majority of the Cotton Bowl, USC appeared to be in complete control. With just four and a half minutes remaining in regulation, the Trojans held a 15-point lead, and statistical models placed their win probability at 99.8%. However, in a shocking sequence, Tulane surged to score 16 points in the final minutes, snatching victory from USC. This dramatic finish underscored the volatility of the 2022 season, where the team's explosive offensive potential was ultimately tempered by late-game defensive lapses that defined their final appearance.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: 2022 USC Trojans football team
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