Russia faces a profound demographic shift as birth rates fall and the population ages.

History · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: With a fertility rate well below the replacement level of 2.1, Russia is experiencing a significant demographic contraction. Despite relying on millions of immigrants to bolster its numbers, the country faces a shrinking workforce, an aging citizenry, and the compounding pressures of war, disease, and recent waves of emigration.

Russia’s demographic landscape is defined by a persistent gap between births and deaths. As of 2025, the total fertility rate sits at 1.37 children per woman, far below the 2.1 required for population stability. This trend has contributed to an aging society, with the average age now reaching 40.3 years. The government has attempted to address these challenges through various means, including simplifying immigration laws and, more recently, introducing controversial guidelines that suggest psychotherapy for women who express a desire to remain childless.

The country’s population, estimated at 146 million in early 2025, has been in a state of flux for decades. While the 2010s saw brief periods of growth, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the largest peacetime decline in recorded history. This crisis was further exacerbated by the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which led to significant military fatalities and a substantial exodus of citizens, including thousands of technology workers. Analysts note that the country lost roughly 2 million more people than expected between 2020 and 2023 due to the combined effects of war, disease, and migration.

Immigration remains a critical, albeit fluctuating, pillar of Russian demographics. With over 7.6 million immigrants as of 2024, Russia maintains one of the world's largest foreign-born populations, primarily sourced from post-Soviet states in Central Asia. These workers are essential to industries like construction and household services, particularly in major urban centers. However, the reliance on migration is set against a backdrop of internal challenges, including high male mortality rates and a persistent brain drain in the scientific community, leading some projections to suggest the population could drop to 130 million by 2046.

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