Is Russia a resurgent great power or a wounded empire in slow decline?
In short: Modern Russian imperialism is driven less by strength than by a desperate, nostalgic desire to reclaim lost Soviet grandeur. Rather than a rising superpower, Moscow acts as a wounded state, using coercion and internal repression to manage a long-term decline that its current leadership views as a geopolitical catastrophe.
The roots of Russian expansionism are deeply tied to its history of authoritarian governance and a reliance on territorial growth to sustain its political elite. For centuries, the Russian state operated as a self-colonizing entity, expanding across land rather than overseas. This terrestrial model allowed for easier suppression of dissent but created a system where constant growth was necessary to reward officials and maintain control over a labor-intensive, low-productivity economy. By the late 19th century, this expansion had made the Russian Empire the third-largest in history, covering roughly one-sixth of the world's landmass.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the Russian political class struggled to adapt to a post-imperial reality. Vladimir Putin has characterized the dissolution of the USSR as the most significant geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. Under his leadership, the regime has rejected democratic reforms in favor of a kleptocratic structure dominated by the Siloviki—a circle of security-focused elites. This leadership views the existence of open, democratic societies and Western security alliances like NATO as an existential threat to their survival, fueling a neo-imperialist agenda.
Today, Moscow’s foreign policy is defined by a rejection of the post-Cold War order. Despite the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for nuclear disarmament, the Kremlin has repeatedly violated international norms. From the 2008 military intervention in Georgia to the 2014 seizure of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has sought to forcibly reassert its influence. These actions are not the maneuvers of a secure nation, but the reactive, ruthless efforts of a regime that relies on coercion because it lacks the soft power to attract neighbors through economic or political prosperity.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Russia’s Imperial Ambitions – A Wounded Bear Stumbles on a Path of Slow Decline - The SAIS Review of International Affairs
- Also: Russian imperialism
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