Should every nation reach net zero simultaneously, or is a staggered approach more equitable?

A Just and Inclusive Net Zero: Who should get there first? - Myles Allen · 59:34 · Video: Gresham College · Watch at the source

In short: While global net zero is essential, the path to achieving it remains contentious. Myles Allen argues that historical emitters like the UK must lead the way, yet warns that a staggered timeline risks leaving developing nations behind. Balancing climate urgency with social fairness is the defining challenge of our generation.

The pursuit of net zero is often framed as a collective global endeavor, but Myles Allen, Professor of the Environment at Oxford, suggests this narrative is misleading. While the ultimate goal is universal, the responsibility for reaching it is not distributed equally. Historical emitters, including the UK, bear a greater burden to reach net zero before the global average. However, this staggered approach creates a significant risk: developing countries could find themselves stranded in the transition, unable to compete in a sustainable global economy if they are not supported through the process.

A major obstacle to progress is the politicization of climate policy. In the UK, net zero has become a wedge issue, with policies often mislabeled to justify unpopular local measures. For instance, Allen notes that the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in London is a vital tool for improving local air quality—a personal priority for those with health concerns like asthma—but it is not a net zero strategy. Misrepresenting such policies as climate action risks a populist backlash, potentially empowering climate-skeptic governments by the early 2030s.

Beyond policy mechanics, the discourse must address the inherent inequalities of climate change. The myth that "we are all in this together" obscures the reality that climate impacts create distinct winners and losers. Allen emphasizes that climate solutions should not exacerbate existing power imbalances or inequalities. Drawing on the philosophy of John Rawls, he argues that people instinctively prefer outcomes that avoid injustice, even when their own status as a winner or loser is uncertain. Addressing these perceived and real injustices is essential to maintaining public support for the urgent transition required by mid-century.

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