Why projecting past trends into the future is a fundamentally flawed strategy
In short: Most forecasting methods rely on the assumption that the future will mirror the past. This video explores why that logic fails to account for the unexpected shifts that define our world.
In this lecture from MIT's IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, the instructor examines the inherent flaws in common forecasting processes. The core issue lies in the tendency to simply project existing trends forward, a method that remains blind to 'game changers.'
The video explains how these mathematical projections cannot prepare us for inevitable disruptions caused by political, economic, or technological shifts.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed
- Also: Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed captions | IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis | Institute for Data, Systems, and Society | MIT OpenCourseWare
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