Can a politician accurately predict a weather event that occurs once in 500 years?

Nature · Published 20 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: In 2023, Hong Kong Chief Secretary Eric Chan described a massive rainstorm as a once-in-five-centuries event. Yet, official meteorological records in the city only span 139 years. This discrepancy highlights the complex intersection of political rhetoric and environmental data, raising questions about how officials frame extreme weather for the public.

Eric Chan, the current Chief Secretary for Administration in Hong Kong, has held various high-level government roles, including Director of Immigration and Secretary General of the Committee for Safeguarding National Security. His career has been marked by significant public controversy, including being placed on a United States Treasury list of designated individuals due to his role in national security matters. Despite these international sanctions, Chan has maintained his position, even securing his personal property in Sha Tin without relying on traditional banking systems.

Beyond his administrative duties, Chan frequently navigates sensitive public discourse. In 2023, he faced scrutiny for his characterization of a severe rainstorm as a 500-year event, a claim that sits awkwardly against the reality that local weather data only dates back to 1884. This tendency to frame events with absolute authority has extended to other areas, such as his defense of government COVID-19 policies and his public insistence that civil servants had a duty to vote in elections that ultimately saw record-low turnout.

Chan’s tenure is also defined by his vocal defense of the government against external criticism. Whether responding to international pressure regarding the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit or addressing local dissent over national security interpretations, he consistently argues that government actions uphold the rule of law. However, critics often point to these same actions as evidence of overreach, creating a persistent tension between official narratives and the perceptions of the public and legal observers.

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