Accelerating greenhouse gas emissions could trigger a marine mass extinction

Nature · Published 2 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Researchers modeling the physiological limits of diverse marine animals found that rising greenhouse gas emissions could trigger a mass extinction event. The study suggests that the combined impact of ocean warming and oxygen depletion could lead to species losses comparable to current human-driven impacts within a single century.

By calibrating species' ecophysiological limits against the fossil record, the researchers quantified both global and local extinction risks. They observed that while polar species face the highest risk of extinction, tropical regions may experience a greater decline in local biological richness.

The findings suggest that reversing current emission trends could reduce these extinction risks by over 70%, potentially preserving biodiversity accumulated over the last 50 million years.

Why it matters: Reversing greenhouse gas emission trends could reduce the risk of marine mass extinction by more than 70%.

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