Rising temperatures above specific thresholds are linked to sharp declines in US crop yields
In short: Researchers analyzing US corn, soybean, and cotton yields found that crop productivity is linked to temperature in a nonlinear way. While yields increase with warmth up to certain points—29°C for corn, 30°C for soybeans, and 32°C for cotton—temperatures exceeding these thresholds are associated with much steeper declines in productivity.
By pairing county-level yield data with a fine-scale weather dataset, the study identified that the decline in yields above optimal temperatures is significantly steeper than the increase below them. This suggests that historical farming adaptations may not be sufficient to handle extreme heat.
The study used both time-series and cross-sectional data, but predictions for future yield losses rely on specific climate warming scenarios like B1 and A1FI.
Why it matters: Extreme heat may impact global food security more severely than warming below certain thresholds.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Research: Schlenker and Roberts (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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