Can the Paris Agreement survive a world of increasing fragmentation?

John Kerry and Al Gore: The US is back in the Paris Agreement. What's next? · 38:31 · Video: TED · Watch at the source

In short: After the United States rejoined the Paris Agreement, a critical question emerged: can international climate cooperation survive amidst global conflict? As faith in multilateralism wanes, experts are debating whether US disengagement is a setback or a rare opportunity to forge more binding, effective global alliances.

The Paris Agreement, established at COP21 in 2015, represents a landmark effort by 195 nations to limit global warming to below 1.5°C. However, the spirit of the accord faces significant pressure. At the ChangeNOW 2025 summit, leaders noted that the optimism seen a decade ago has been replaced by uncertainty, driven by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

The United States has a history of fluctuating participation in international climate treaties. Following a withdrawal under President Trump in 2017, President Biden initiated a 30-day process to rejoin the accord upon taking office. Interestingly, Professor François Gemenne noted that US disengagement is not a new phenomenon; in 2001, the US left the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, an event that paradoxically helped other nations reach agreements.

This pattern has sparked a debate among academics and diplomats. While some view US withdrawal as a blow to momentum, others, like former French Secretary of State for Ecology Brune Poirson, suggest that operating without the US might have allowed for a more binding agreement. Others argue that US absence provides a 'clean start' to develop new instruments and alliances that bypass the delays often caused by American political shifts.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of future climate action may depend on whether the world can transition from making promises to meaningful delivery. As Paul Watkinson, a senior advisor to the COP28 presidency, observes, multilateralism is inherently slow and imperfect, yet it remains the essential backbone for global climate action.

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