The 2024 European Parliament elections shifted right, yet the centrist status quo remains intact.

The 2024 European Parliament elections shifted right, yet the centrist status quo remains intact.
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In short: While headlines focused on the rise of populist radical right parties, the European People’s Party emerged as the election's true kingmaker. Despite significant gains for groups critical of European integration, the established pro-EU coalition retains a majority, ensuring continuity for the European Commission and its legislative agenda.

Held from 6-9 June 2024, the tenth direct European Parliament elections saw approximately half of the 357 million eligible voters across 27 member states participate. The results confirmed a clear shift toward the right, with parties affiliated with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the newly formed Patriots for Europe group—which absorbed most members of the defunct Identity and Democracy group—securing significant representation. Together, these right-wing blocs hold 187 seats, roughly a quarter of the Parliament.

Despite this fragmentation, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest group, bolstered by its role as the pivotal median party in a legislature that forms coalitions on an issue-by-issue basis. The traditional pro-EU grand coalition of the EPP, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the centrist Renew Europe group still commands a majority. This stability allowed for the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission President, maintaining the legislative trajectory of the previous term.

The election results varied sharply by nation. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally topped the polls, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call snap national elections. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best result to date, while Italy’s Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, secured the largest share of the national vote. Conversely, the liberal Renew group and the Greens suffered notable losses, particularly in France and Germany. These shifts suggest that while the Parliament remains pro-European, the EPP may increasingly look to the right to influence policy on migration and environmental regulations, potentially challenging the ambitious European Green Deal.

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