Why Baltimore's recent crime drop works: The 'stickiness' of violence
In short: Baltimore is seeing a dramatic reversal in its crime trends, with homicides falling nearly 30% in just one year. While many cities focus on broad social issues like poverty, experts suggest the secret lies in understanding that urban violence is 'sticky'—concentrated among specific people and places.
Baltimore’s recent progress is significant: homicides dropped nearly 30% from the previous year, nonfatal shootings fell by 25%, and carjackings decreased by 36%. While these numbers are encouraging, they represent a complex shift in a city that has historically struggled with crime rates well above national averages. For instance, the city recorded 348 killings in 2019, nearly matching its all-time peak of 353 in 1993.
Criminology professor Thomas Abt explains this success through the concept of 'stickiness.' He argues that urban violence is not a uniform social ill but rather sticks together among small groups of people, specific locations, and recurring behaviors. Consequently, the most effective strategies are also sticky: they must be highly concentrated on the individuals at the highest risk for shooting or being shot. This approach prioritizes getting ahead of potential retaliation—such as when someone makes threats while grieving a loved one—by using violence interrupters, therapy, and victim services rather than just standard law enforcement.
This targeted strategy differs from broader 'root cause' initiatives like opening recreation centers or swimming pools. While Abt acknowledges these provide community benefits, he notes there is no evidence they directly reduce violence because the highest-risk individuals are unlikely to use them. Furthermore, he cautions against overmilitarized approaches, such as deploying the National Guard, which can damage community trust and lack the specialized training required for effective local policing. The goal is a 'separate lane' of intervention that focuses specifically on the mechanics of violence.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Baltimore's crime rate dropped dramatically in 2025. A look at what the city did
- Also: Crime in Baltimore
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