Can a nonpartisan primary system actually force political candidates to become more moderate?
In short: Proponents of the top-two primary argue that by forcing all candidates onto a single ballot, voters will naturally gravitate toward moderate options. Yet, empirical evidence suggests the reality is far more complex, with little proof that these systems meaningfully reduce political polarization or change the fundamental makeup of legislatures.
The nonpartisan primary, often called a jungle primary, functions as the first stage of a two-round election process. Unlike traditional partisan primaries where voters are restricted by party affiliation, this system places every candidate for an office on one ballot. The two individuals who receive the most votes, regardless of their party, advance to the final general election. This structure was designed to bypass the limitations of partisan blanket primaries, which the Supreme Court struck down in 2000 because they compelled parties to associate with candidates they did not formally endorse. In 2008, the Court found the Washington state model constitutionally permissible because it treats party labels as mere candidate preferences rather than official endorsements.
Advocates frequently claim that this format encourages moderation by allowing voters to support candidates across party lines. However, research into the system's performance in states like California and Washington tells a different story. Political science professor Todd Donovan found that the partisan structure of the Washington legislature remained largely unchanged after the system's implementation. Furthermore, studies of California's 2012 elections indicated that crossover voting was rare and typically driven by strategic motives rather than a desire for centrist representation. In some instances, the system even led to general elections featuring two candidates from the same party, which can occasionally depress voter participation in the final round.
The system also introduces unique risks, most notably vote-splitting. If a party runs too many candidates in the first round, they risk dividing their base so effectively that no candidate from that party advances to the general election, even if the party holds a majority of the total vote. This dynamic has led to sophisticated, sometimes controversial, tactical maneuvers. In a 2010 Washington state legislative race, a challenger funded ads for a rival party's candidate to manipulate the outcome, a move that sparked a significant campaign-finance scandal. Ultimately, while the top-two primary changes the mechanics of how candidates reach the ballot, it has yet to prove it can reliably reshape the ideological landscape of American politics.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: Nonpartisan primary
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