The ground beneath Naples is bulging at an alarming new speed
In short: A massive supervolcano in Italy has shattered decades of scientific predictions. In May 2025, a violent earthquake swarm triggered a state of emergency as the earth began to physically heave upward, threatening the lives of nearly one million people living in its shadow.
The Campi Flegrei caldera, located west of Naples, is a complex volcanic system with a diameter of approximately 12 kilometers. It has hosted over 70 eruptions in the last 15,000 years. Since its last eruption in 1538 CE, the region has been defined by bradyseism—a process where the ground undergoes rapid uplift and vigorous seismic activity, followed by slower deflation. After a major crisis between 1982 and 1984, the volcano entered a quiet phase before ground inflation resumed in 2005.
By early 2025, the net uplift reached about 1.4 meters. However, the situation escalated dramatically in May 2025. A magnitude 4.4 earthquake on May 13th triggered a cascade of 49 seismic events, followed by another swarm of 24 earthquakes within 24 hours. This activity has accelerated the ground's upward movement to 2 centimeters per month, which is double the rate recorded just six months prior. Within Pozzuoli's Rione Terra coastal zone, a massive 143-centimetre land uplift has triggered major building damage, rendering whole districts unfit for residency.
Scientists are currently grappling with the complexity of the caldera's interior. The presence of shallow hydrothermal systems—which hold pressurized fluids of both magmatic and non-magmatic origin—can mask signals from deeper primary magmatic sources. Modern studies imply that very long-period seismic activity might signal a network of fractures linking volcanic inflation's core to surface fumaroles. With seismic hazards now being reassessed for potential magnitudes reaching Mw 5.1, the region faces a high-stakes environment where the correlation between uplift and earthquake frequency indicates a direct causal relationship.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Earthquake Swarm At Campi Flegrei Supervolcano Triggers Emergency Response
- Also: Coupled earthquakes and resonance processes during the uplift of Campi Flegrei caldera - Communications Earth & Environment
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