Was South Carolina a battleground or a Republican stronghold in 2016?
In short: Before the 2016 election, pundits feared South Carolina might shift toward the Democrats. Polling suggested a tight race, with some internal data showing a dead heat. However, the final results proved much more decisive, reinforcing a political trend that has defined the state for decades.
The 2016 presidential election in South Carolina saw Republican Donald Trump and running mate Mike Pence secure a victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Trump won the state with 54.9% of the vote, a margin of 14.3% over Clinton, who received 40.7%. This performance was notable as Clinton underperformed Barack Obama's 2012 results by approximately 4%.
The state's political identity has been largely Republican since 1964, when it voted for Barry Goldwater. Since then, the Republican ticket has won every election except for 1976, when Jimmy Carter won the state. This trend continued through 2016, as Trump became the first Republican to win the state without carrying Charleston County since Dwight Eisenhower did so in 1956.
Despite the decisive outcome, the lead-up to the election was marked by uncertainty. On August 10, a Public Policy Polling report showed Trump leading Clinton by only 2 points, while an internal Democratic Party poll suggested the race was tied. On August 18, Sabato's Crystal Ball lowered the race's status from 'Safe Republican' to 'Likely Republican' following these statistics.
The election saw a voter turnout of 67.86%, with 2.10 million people voting out of 3.12 million registered voters. The results included Trump winning six of the state's seven congressional districts. While the state remains solidly red, the 2016 election marked the last time Democratic candidates won Clarendon and Dillon counties as of 2024.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: 2016 United States presidential election in South Carolina
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