A 99-year US lease could reshape the South Caucasus

Wars & Conflicts · Published 16 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: A historic peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan aims to end decades of violent conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. At its heart lies a massive infrastructure project: a transit corridor that would bypass Russia and Iran, granting the United States exclusive development rights for nearly a century.

On 8 August 2025, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan initialed a peace treaty following decades of conflict. The dispute began in 1988 over the NKAO territory, leading to full-scale fighting in 1992 after a 1991 referendum. By 1994, Armenian forces controlled the enclave and 9% of Azerbaijan's territory. The new deal involves the withdrawal of Russian forces and the creation of a transit route to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), the US will hold exclusive 99-year development rights for rail, oil, gas, and fibre optic lines. While contested by Armenia, Russia, and Iran, the deal replaces Russia as the primary mediator in the South Caucasus.

theme-key: hidden-mechanisms mood-key: reflective difficulty-key: 3 topics-key: [geopolitics, conflict-resolution, south-caucasus]

claims-key: ["The agreement was initialed on 8 August 2025 by Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev.", "The US will have exclusive rights to develop the route for 99 years.", "The route is intended to allow passage to Central Asia without traveling through Russia or Iran.", The NKAO region's transfer to Armenia was requested by ethnic Armenians in 1988, marking the start of hostilities.", "Armenia currently controls approximately 9% of Azerbaijan's territory outside the enclave.", "The route is planned to be 43-kilometre (27 mi) long."] canvas-type: "timeline"

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