The 2022 Midterm Elections Defied Historical Trends for Incumbent Parties and Gubernatorial Control
In short: The 2022 gubernatorial cycle broke nearly a century of political patterns. For the first time since 1934, Democrats gained seats while holding the presidency, and the non-incumbent party suffered net losses for the first time since 1998. It was a rare midterm where the party in power actually expanded its reach.
The 2022 elections, held on November 8, involved 36 states and three territories. While midterm cycles typically punish the party in the White House, Democrats outperformed expectations. The party secured governorships in Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts, while Republicans only flipped Nevada. This made Steve Sisolak the only incumbent governor to lose his seat during the cycle, marking the first time a Democrat had lost a re-election bid since 2014.
The electoral landscape was defined by high-stakes contests in states that had split their support between parties in recent years. Republicans defended six seats in states Joe Biden won in 2020, including Arizona and Georgia. Conversely, Democrats defended four governorships in states Donald Trump had previously carried, such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Despite the national environment, Democrats won the popular vote by 0.24 points, making it the closest cycle since 2010.
Individual races produced historic milestones. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs defeated Kari Lake in a race decided by just 0.67%, the tightest margin of the entire cycle. Meanwhile, Georgia saw a rematch between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams; Kemp secured a victory by 300,000 votes, his largest raw vote margin since taking office and the state's most decisive gubernatorial win since 2006. In Colorado, Jared Polis became the first openly gay governor to win re-election in American history.
The cycle also highlighted shifting demographics and regional trends. Florida cemented its status as a Republican stronghold as Ron DeSantis won re-election by a wide margin, flipping counties with significant Latino populations that had previously leaned Democratic. These results suggest that while national trends often dictate midterm outcomes, local candidate strength and shifting voter coalitions continue to play a decisive role in determining which party controls the statehouse.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
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