Why a prominent foreign policy analyst believes the United States faces likely defeat in Iran
In short: Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, argues that the United States is currently unreliable and incapable of finishing its conflicts. He contends that Iran's control over the strait creates a strategic shift that the current administration is ill-equipped to reverse without a full-scale, unlikely land invasion.
Robert Kagan, a former co-founder of a neoconservative think tank, has long advocated for U.S. intervention abroad, including the war in Iraq. However, his recent analysis of the conflict with Iran suggests a grim outlook for American influence. Kagan argues that if Iran maintains control over the strait, it gains enormous leverage—potentially more than it would possess by developing a nuclear weapon—by determining who accesses the waterway and charging tolls. This shift, he believes, places Iran in the driver's seat of regional power.
Kagan maintains that the current U.S. military strategy is insufficient. Despite a 37-day bombing campaign that targeted Iranian leadership, the administration has failed to secure the strait or force concessions. He argues that the only viable military solution to remove the regime and reopen the waterway would be a full-scale land invasion, an option he believes neither the American people nor the current administration are willing to pursue. Consequently, he views defeat as not only possible but likely, noting that the U.S. is currently more afraid of escalating the war than Iran is.
Beyond the immediate regional conflict, Kagan highlights a broader erosion of American global standing. He argues that the Trump administration has effectively dismantled key alliances, including NATO, and alienated partners in East Asia. Unlike previous American military engagements where the U.S. could eventually mitigate damage, Kagan sees no clear path to undoing the current strategic losses. He suggests that sometimes there is simply no solution, and the U.S. must grapple with the reality that its influence is shifting away from its traditional sphere of control.
Kagan’s assessment is rooted in his observation that the Iranians are not deterred by the threat of further military action. He points to their recent response to negotiations—which he described as a slap in the face—as evidence that the nation is not acting out of fear. With the U.S. unwilling to commit to the necessary ground war and its global alliances weakened, Kagan concludes that the strategic situation has fundamentally changed in favor of Iran and its supporters.
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