The new playbook for autocracy is being written from within

Health · Published 18 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Unlike the military coups of the Cold War, today's slide toward authoritarianism often happens under the guise of legitimacy. Modern autocrats are not seizing power from the outside; they are being elected to it, only to systematically dismantle democratic institutions from the inside out.

The 'third wave of autocratization' represents a distinct shift in how power is consolidated. While previous waves were often characterized by sudden, violent military interventions, the current 21st-century trend is defined by 'democratic backsliding.' This process occurs when leaders are legitimately elected to positions of power but subsequently erode the separation of powers. This phenomenon is increasingly observed not just in fragile, newly established democracies, but also within long-established, healthy liberal democracies across Europe and North America.

Several global catalysts have exacerbated this trend. Scholars point to the 'war on terror' following the 2001 September 11 attacks, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic as pivotal moments that accelerated the drift away from liberal democracy.

The V-Dem Institute stated that approximately 25% of nations experienced a shift towards autocracy during 2025. This shift is often accompanied by a decline in democratic quality, specifically regarding increasing pressures on media and journalists. A key mechanism in this modern transition is the strategic use of disinformation. While autocrats have long used propaganda, recent global research suggests that high levels of government-disseminated disinformation help authoritarian rulers stay in power by making democratization less likely. Conversely, in democratic systems, the presence of disinformation significantly increases the probability of an autocratization onset. This creates a dual-track effect where disinformation serves as both a shield for existing autocracies and a weapon for dismantling emerging democracies.

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