The 2026–2027 El Niño is an unprecedented climate event of historic, record-breaking severity

Nature · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Scientists are witnessing an El Niño event so intense it is being described as supersized. With sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific reaching record highs, this phenomenon is expected to persist into 2027, triggering extreme weather patterns and potentially making 2027 the warmest year on record for the planet.

The 2026–2027 El Niño is widely considered the largest event in living memory, likely surpassing any recorded since the 19th century. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the event is firmly established and intensifying, with sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific already well above average. By September 2026, the Niño 3.4 index—a key metric for measuring these anomalies—reached 2 °C, the threshold for a very strong event, with some daily values hitting 3 °C. Forecasts suggest these temperatures could climb even higher as the event approaches its peak.

The mechanism behind this surge involves exceptionally warm ocean conditions, both at the surface and at depths exceeding 8 °C above average. This massive release of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere is expected to drive global average temperatures upward. Experts anticipate that 2027 will likely replace 2024 as the warmest year on record, potentially exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold above pre-industrial levels. This natural climate variation is compounding the existing stresses of long-term climate change, creating a volatile environment for global weather systems.

The impacts of this El Niño are far-reaching and varied. While it suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, it has fueled a hyperactive season in the Pacific. Regions such as southern Africa, north-east Australia, and parts of Central America face heightened drought risks, while north-west Europe may experience stormier conditions. Because the strength of an El Niño does not dictate uniform impacts everywhere, the WMO is using multi-model ensembles to provide refined, location-specific forecasts. This unprecedented event demands exceptional preparation, as the world enters what officials describe as uncharted waters.

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