Mapping the geography of climate denial: why certain regions reject scientific consensus

Nature · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Roughly 15 percent of Americans reject the reality of climate change, but this skepticism is not spread evenly. By analyzing millions of social media posts, researchers have uncovered how denialism clusters in specific pockets of the country, fueled by coordinated networks and influential voices that shape local public opinion.

Recent research utilizing artificial intelligence to analyze 7.4 million geocoded tweets from 2017 to 2019 reveals that approximately 14.8 percent of the U.S. population denies climate change. While this figure aligns with broader national survey data, the digital mapping of these views exposes a more complex reality. Denialism is most prevalent in the central and southern regions of the United States, with states like Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, and North Dakota showing denial rates exceeding 20 percent. However, these state-level averages often mask intense local variations; for instance, while California maintains a low overall denial rate, specific areas like Shasta County exhibit rates as high as 52 percent.

The mechanism behind this phenomenon is not merely geographic but social. The study identifies the formation of digital echo chambers where climate change believers and deniers exist in largely separate networks. These communities are influenced by a coordinated social media presence, with figures such as Donald Trump, conservative media outlets, and right-wing activists playing central roles in disseminating misinformation. These influencers frequently leverage specific, periodic events—such as cold weather snaps or major climate conferences—to sow public doubt about scientific consensus. This process creates a form of knowledge vulnerability, leaving communities less prepared to adopt resilience measures against environmental shifts.

Beyond political affiliation, the prevalence of denialism correlates with several socio-demographic factors, including education levels, income, regional economic dependence on fossil fuels, and local COVID-19 vaccination rates. The persistence of these views highlights a significant challenge for communication strategies. Because denialism is often clustered at the county level, researchers argue that interventions must be targeted and localized rather than broad-based. By identifying these specific geographic and social clusters, policymakers and educators may be better equipped to counter misinformation and foster a more informed public dialogue on climate science.

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