A significant drop in atmospheric CO2 drove the Earth's shift to an icehouse climate
In short: Researchers reviewing geological data from 34 million years ago found that a major decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide was the primary driver of the Earth's transition from a greenhouse to an icehouse world. This period, known as the Eocene–Oligocene transition, saw the first major glaciation of Antarctica and a global shift toward cold-climate species.
The study synthesized marine and terrestrial proxy data—such as oxygen isotopes and fossil records—alongside a suite of climate models. By comparing these records, the team evaluated three potential causes for the cooling: declining CO2, changes in ocean gateways, and ice sheet growth.
The analysis revealed that CO2 forcing provided the best fit for the observed temperature changes, specifically a decrease of about 1.6 times. While orbital forcing likely influenced the timing, the study relies on model-data comparisons and proxy syntheses rather than a single direct observation.
Why it matters: Understanding past climate shifts helps scientists identify the primary drivers of global cooling and ice age cycles.
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