New estimator confirms subtle earthquake magnitude-ratio shifts despite data gaps
In short: A seismologist developed a new estimator called b-positive to measure the b-value, a number describing the ratio of large to small earthquakes. Unlike older methods, it relies only on the positive differences in magnitude between consecutive earthquakes, making it far less thrown off by the missing data typical of catalogs right after a big quake.
A drop in b-value before an earthquake has been proposed as a warning sign of a bigger shock to come, but catalog gaps right after a quake can produce the same pattern without any real change underneath.
Applying b-positive to several real foreshock sequences, the researcher found a genuine, if smaller than previously reported, dip and recovery in b-value. The study reanalyzed existing earthquake catalogs rather than running a new experiment, and the author cautions the effect may be too subtle for real-time earthquake alarms.
Why it matters: A more reliable way to track earthquake magnitude patterns suggests a real, if subtle, warning signal exists before some quakes.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Research: Elst (2021). B‐Positive: A Robust Estimator of Aftershock Magnitude Distribution in Transiently Incomplete Catalogs. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth.
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