The rapid rise and collapse of Yemen's secessionist movement
In short: In late 2025, a separatist group seized vast swaths of southern Yemen, only to see its gains erased in weeks. This volatile shift in power has fractured regional alliances, sparked a new Houthi-Saudi conflict, and placed the global oil trade at risk as the balance of power shifts.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a secessionist group backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), launched 'Operation Promising Future' on December 2, 2025. The offensive broke a long military stalemate, allowing the STC to rapidly seize several provinces, including parts of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahrah. By December 9, the group claimed control over most areas in the former South Yemen, even announcing plans for an independence referendum by 2028.
The momentum shifted abruptly in early 2026. Following Saudi Arabian airstrikes on the port city of Mukalla on December 30, 2025, the internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) launched a counter-offensive on January 2, 2026. Supported by Saudi forces, the PLC retook key cities like Seiyun and Mukalla within days. This rapid reversal led to the STC's apparent dissolution on January 9, the removal of its leader Aidarus al-Zoubaidi from the government, and the renaming of the group to the 'Transitional Council of South Arabia.'
This internal realignment has triggered broader regional consequences. The UAE announced a withdrawal of its remaining forces in January 2026, straining ties with Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the Houthis announced a 'new phase' of conflict in June 2026, launching drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia and seizing Red Sea coastal areas. These developments have placed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—which carries about 7% of global oil—into a state of disputed control, threatening international freedom of navigation.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Yemen 2026: Southern Transitional Council's fall and renewed Houthi-Saudi conflict
- Also: 2025–2026 southern Yemen campaign
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