In 1944, Churchill and Stalin secretly divided Eastern Europe into spheres of influence

Wars & Conflicts · Published 15 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Fearing a post-war Soviet expansion and American isolationism, Winston Churchill sought to secure British interests by carving up Eastern Europe. This secret arrangement, known as the Percentages agreement, aimed to keep vital Mediterranean shipping routes under British control while acknowledging the reality of Soviet military dominance in the region.

By October 1944, Britain’s economic dependence on the United States and the Red Army’s rapid advance across Eastern Europe created a precarious geopolitical landscape for Winston Churchill. Concerned that Communist governments in Italy, Greece, and Yugoslavia would grant the Soviet Union strategic naval and air bases, Churchill prioritized maintaining British influence over Mediterranean sea lanes. These routes were essential for connecting Britain to its colonies in Asia and ensuring a steady supply of Middle Eastern oil.

Churchill’s strategy involved a delicate balancing act. He advocated for a Mediterranean offensive to block the Red Army’s westward movement, yet he simultaneously relied on the Soviet Union to bear the brunt of the fighting against the Wehrmacht. This contradiction was compounded by the fact that the British military was stretched to its limit. By late 1944, the Western Allies faced a stalemate in France and the Netherlands, as logistical failures and German resistance at the Westwall slowed their progress. The inability to clear the Scheldt river until November 1944 rendered the port of Antwerp useless, further weakening Britain’s bargaining position.

In this climate of desperation, Churchill and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin negotiated the Percentages agreement during the Fourth Moscow Conference. The secret deal, which Churchill worried the United States would view as imperialist, assigned specific percentages of influence to each power. Despite U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt’s initial hesitation and the Atlantic Charter’s prohibition of such spheres, he eventually granted a three-month trial. The agreement was later published by Churchill in his 1953 memoir, The Second World War, revealing the extent to which he attempted to manage the post-war order through informal diplomacy while the Red Army effectively seized control of the Balkans.

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